Incorporating Conditional Uncertainty into Decision-making for Forecasting Actual Evapotranspiration in Semi-arid Area

Full Length Research Article

Incorporating Conditional Uncertainty into Decision-making for Forecasting Actual Evapotranspiration in Semi-arid Area

Majid Khayyatnezhad*, Hasti Keynoos

Adv. life sci., vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 498-503, December 2022
*- Corresponding Author: Majid Khayatnezhad (Email: Khayatnezhad@gmail.com)
Authors' Affiliations

 Young Researchers and Elite club, Ardabil Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ardabil – Iran 
 
[Date Received: 10/11/2021; Date Revised: 11/10/2022; Date Published: 31/12/2022]

Abstractaa download_button
Introduction
Methods
Results
Discussion
References 

Abstract

Background: The long-term effects of climate change in all countries have been able to affect the water management system. Therefore, it is vital to consider the impacts of this phenomenon in sustainable management. A conditional framework has been conducted to predict crop water requirement in semi-arid regions with two climate scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 considering the IPCC datasets. 

Methods: Eight models including EC EARTH, CESM, CANESM, HADGEM, GISS E2, GFDLCM2, MIROC ESM and IPSL were implemented to evaluate the extreme points of the evapotranspiration in future.

Result: Results showed that GISS E2 and GFDLCM2 models were more accurate to estimate the evapotranspiration. Moreover, in the next two periods for all four parameters in all GCM models, the RCP 8.5 situation was anticipated a better esteem than the RCP 4.5 choice. Comes about appeared that GFDLCM2 and GISS E2 models have more certainty for evapotranspiration. The lowest values during the next two periods 2020-2030 and 2080-2090 and the methods RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for evapotranspiration by GISS E2 model have been obtained. The evapotranspiration alters based on the climate alter models amid the following two periods, distant and close, were inspected for two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The comes about appeared that the RCP 8.5 situation has assessed the four parameters for the following period more than the RCP 4.5 situation.

Conclusion: The comes about appeared that the RCP 8.5 situation has assessed the four parameters for the following period more than the RCP 4.5 situation. At that point the changes of the least and most extreme parameters of evapotranspiration for the two outflow scenarios amid the following two close and distant periods were inspected that the comes about appeared that the both scenarios have a nearly steady slant amid both the close and distant prospects and encompasses a slight increment and diminish.

Keywords: Climate change; GCM model; Emission scenarios; Streamflow       

Introduction6th button-01

The effect of climate change on the water resources is a critical topic in water management, agriculture and environmental science [1-3]. Global warming is a long-term phenomenon that is defined by various hydrological factors. One of the components preventing the sustainable development is hydrological fluctuations [4-6]. This phenomenon can greatly affect water resources. Increased evapotranspiration is one of the signs of climate change and global warming, which increases the need for water for all uses. In addition, it has changed the cycle of water distribution and consumption in the agricultural, industrial and drinking sectors [7-9]. Another problem of climate change is the change of rainfall and temperature, as a result of which the spatial and temporal distribution of renewable water sources, plant evapotranspiration and irrigation efficiency are altered [10].

Global warming was defined as a main reason of rainfall reduction by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Due to the fluctuations of hydrological phenomena and the decrease in rainfall and increase in surface temperature, the water crisis can be described as serious [11]. Estimation of evapotranspiration changes by different climatic models is different because each model is based on the general circulation of the atmosphere with less rainfall and temperature increase [12-14]. Climate change is summarized in the fluctuation of the heat transfer from the earth surface to the atmospheric circulation and spatiotemporal changes of precipitation [15,16]. Acceleration of the water vapor rotation, such as hydrological characteristics including runoff, evaporation, and soil-moisture content are considered. Suitable measures are needed to decrease the impact and adapt to global warming [17]. This phenomenon affects the agricultural activity, water resources, and industrial events [18-20]. Today, in the recent years of 20th century, several papers were conducted to investigate the climate change phenomenon and its effect on the different consumption [17,21]. The report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) showed that the climate was varied, and global warming was taking place. Main simulation methods have been applied for evaluating the climate change affects which were divided into following groups. AGCMs methods have been considered the interaction of atmospheric and OGCMs methods address the oceans interaction. Finally, the public circulation methods generally are a combination of OGCM and AGCM categories [22-29]. Therefore, the ocean and atmospheric models are combined together to generate the AOGCM (Ocean-Atmospheric General Circulation Models). In this regards, analysis of the public climate change is carried out by parameters that are computed with computer systems established to major computations because of computational limitations [23].

Based on the mentioned concepts, an effort was made to predict the changes of transpiration and evaporation by GCM methods of the IPCC report in the next two periods. Furthermore, the ranges of change and uncertainty analysis of proposed methods of hydrological events were estimated.

Methods6th button-01

Study area

The Batinah coastal plain is found in northern Oman and amplifies generally northwest of the capital, Muscat, for approximately 300 km to the western shore of the Ocean of Oman (Fig. 1).

Figure 1: Map of Oman showing the Study area

The Batinah locale endures from parched climatic conditions and a tall rate of vanishing. It is known for its warm winters with moo stickiness and exceptionally hot and once in a while sticky summer with intermittent and unpredictable downpours. Within the coastal locale, the long-term yearly discusses temperature midpoints 28.5°C, whereas it is 17.8°C within the hilly regions. In differentiate to the coastal zone, overwhelming precipitation are exceptionally likely within the southern good country region. Long-term estimation uncovers an normal precipitation esteem of 50 mm/year, with exceptionally tall precipitation changeability over time and space, where a delayed dry period does regularly succeed to a damp period amid high-rainfall years.

Model structure

For this study, BCSD suffix calculated the evapotranspiration values using IPCC datasets and the daily information of BCSD were obtained by GCM. The publishing center of this model is in the framework of micro-scale model. For this study area, the latitude and longitude coordinates of the station was modeled by MATLAB software and the mean of four networks around the station was determined using geographic information system. Land information set is an area of about 110 km2 in the latitudinal and longitudinal sides. At present, for this paper, annual variations are evaluated, and the required data are determined daily using micro-scale exponential models. AR5 report and IPCC implemented the modern RCP options to represent the different critical emissions trajectories of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 and RCP8.5. In this study, changes in the evapotranspiration during the near future periods (2020-2030) and the distant future periods (2080-2090) under the two scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were examined.

RCP4.5 Scenario

The scenario RCP4.5 is developed using the MiniCAM simulation team and because of the greenhouse gases emission before 2100 remains constant at 4.5 W/m2. The population growth value in the mentioned scenario has estimated to lower than RCP2.6 scenario.

Scenario RCP8.5

Adoption of any mitigation strategies and taking into account the climate consequences and fluctuation, the global warming will proceed in the concept of the mentioned scenario. Because the continuation of the proposed process leads to the radiation induction at the rate of 8.5 W/m2 at 2100. In this model the MESSAGE modeling team was developed and designed at the International Institute for Systems Analysis IIASA in Austria. That is developed using an increasing process of greenhouse gases. Some number of CMIP5 methods were incorporated to estimate the parameters of temperature in the future period 2020-2030, in this study.

Results6th button-01

In Fig. 2 to Fig. 5 has shown the rate of evapotranspiration for climate change models under two scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the near future periods (2020-2030) and the distant future period (2080-2090). According to the figure, all models have estimated a slight increase in evapotranspiration for both near and far periods under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, so that the evapotranspiration rate for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios has been estimated in the same way in the next two periods and almost all the results are the same. For the near future (2020-2030), MIROC-ESM and CANESM models in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios have evaluated the most elevated evapotranspiration rates, and CESM and GISS E2 models for RCP 4.5 situation and EC Soil and CESM models have assessed the most reduced rate of evapotranspiration for the RCP 8.5 situation. Also for the distant future period (2080-2090) in RCP 4.5 scenario HADGEM and CANESM models and in RCP 8.5 scenario, CESM and CANESM models have estimated the highest rate of evapotranspiration. Also, GFDLCM2 and GISS E2 models in RCP 4.5 scenario and MIROC-ESM and IPSL models in RCP 8.5 scenario have estimated the lowest evapotranspiration rate.

Fig. 6 shows the changes in evapotranspiration for the two scenarios during the two near future period (2020-2030) and distant future period (2080-209)) each year. The evapotranspiration for both scenarios during the next two far and near periods has an almost constant trend and has a slight increase and decrease [1, 22]. The RCP 8.5 situation for the removed future period (2080-2090) has evaluated the evapotranspiration more than the RCP 4.5 situation, but for the close future period (2020-2030) both scenarios are somewhat diverse, and The RCP 8.5 situation has somewhat evaluated the evapotranspiration higher than RCP 4.5 situation.

The evapotranspiration changes in Fig. 7 over the next two distant periods (2080-2090) and the near future (2020-2030) for the two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 have been shown by climate change models. In the near future period (2020-2030) for the values of evapotranspiration during both scenarios in climate change models, there is no specific trend and has many fluctuations, but in the near distant future (2080-2090) both scenarios in all models have a fixed trend and differ slightly. During the near future period (2020-2030), EC Soil and CANESM models for RCP 8.5 situation and GISS E2 and CANESM models for RCP 4.5 situation have assessed the least and most elevated evapotranspiration rates, separately. Too for the far off future period (2080-2090), IPSL and GISS E2 models for RCP 8.5 situation and HADGEM and GISS E2 models for RCP 4.5 situation have anticipated the most elevated and most reduced evapotranspiration rates, separately.

Fig. 8 shows the box diagram of evapotranspiration values for eleven GCM climate change models and two emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As shown in Fig.13, CANESM and GISS E2 models have predicted the highest and lowest evapotranspiration rates for the next two near periods 2020-2030 and the next far 2080-2090, respectively, and both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The evapotranspiration alters based on the climate alter models amid the following two periods, distant and close, were inspected for two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The comes about appeared that the RCP 8.5 situation has assessed the four parameters for the following period more than the RCP 4.5 situation. At that point the changes of the least and most extreme

parameters of evapotranspiration for the two outflows scenarios amid the following two close and distant periods were inspected that the comes about appeared that both scenarios have a nearly steady slant amid both the close and distant prospects and encompasses a slight increment and diminish.

In addition, the RCP 8.5 situation has evaluated four parameters for the following period more than the RCP 4.5 situation. At that point the changes of the evapotranspiration amid the close and removed future periods were examined for climate alter demonstrate and emanation scenarios that the comes about appeared the two scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 have nearly assessed the same comes about. RCP 8.5 situation has evaluated the parameters more than the RCP 4.5 situation.

 

 

Figures & Tables

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Discussion6th button-01

Climate change in the future is one of the components of decision making in water resources management. Rainfall and evapotranspiration are two basic factors in agricultural water management that are directly affected by climate change. In addition, there is a linear or non-linear correlation between this factors depending on the geographical area. If the amount of water required by the plant is provided by rainfall, it can be expected that the process of evaporation and transpiration will be done completely.

As abovementioned, the estimation of evaporation and transpiration, in addition to being effective on plant production, also affects the amount of water in the soil. Therefore, agricultural drought can be estimated by predicting evaporation from the porous soil environment. Furthermore, the amount of production of agricultural products is also calculated through the amount of water available for evaporation and transpiration. The results showed that the next 10-year period of increasing evaporation and transpiration potential and decreasing rainfall will have a negative effect on food security [30-37].

Author Contributions

Authors conducted, planned, Analyzed the data, wrote manuscript and interpreted the results and involved in manuscript preparation. All authors read and approved the final version.

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Conflict of Interest

The authors have declare that there is no conflict of interest.6th button-01

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